2008 Blog Archive

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Past Blogs

Sunday May 25, 2008 - Peak Oil 2006

Sunday May 18, 2008 - Project Better Place

Sunday May 11, 2008 - Electric Momentum

Sunday May 4, 2008 - California Green House Gas Rules under Attack

Sunday April 27, 2008 - Th!nk America

Sunday April 20, 2008 - Sainsbury Goes Electric

Sunday April 13, 2008 - EV Pollution

Sunday April 5, 2008 - No-Plug Boycott

Sunday March 30, 2008 - ZEV Mandate the results are in

Sunday March 23, 2008 - New York 2008

Sunday March 16, 2008 - Sustainable Development

Sunday March 9, 2008 - Geneva 2008

Sunday March 2, 2008 - Mangling the Mandate

Sunday February 24, 2008 - Death and Taxes

Sunday February 17, 2008 - A Vision of the Future

Sunday February 10.2008 - Internal Combustion

Sunday February 3, 2008 - The Berkley Climate Action Plan

Sunday January 27. 2008 - Smart Arrives

Sunday January 20, 2008 - Trouble at Tesla

Sunday January 13, 2007 - Hydrogen Highway hits Speed Bump

Sunday January 6, 2008 - Solar Grand Plan

View 2007 blogs

Sunday May 25, 2008 - Peak Oil 2006 - A new report released in London by the German based Energy Watch Group suggests that world oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline to half current volume by 2030.

Overall the report predicts that oil production will fall from the current level of around 81 million barrels a day to something like 39 million barrels a day in 2030.  This would, of course, have dramatic impact on the world economy, especially here in the US who consumes about 25% of the daily production total.

In 1956, M. King Hubbert first predicted that peak production in an oil field would occur when half its reserve had been extracted.  He used this theory to successfully predict that US oil production would peak some time between 1965 and 1970.  Since then his theory, now called Hubbert Peak Theory has been used to predict when an oil field's production would peak.  The theory can also be used to predict when world oil production will peak, know as peak oil, but this is based on having accurate reserves which isn't always possible.  For example it was recently discovered that Kuwait had overstated reserves to enable then to boost their OPEC production quota.

The Energy Watch Group based their findings on current oil production levels not on the level of reserve as is usual when looking at long term oil prospects.  Based on a projected reserve of 1.255 Giga barrels the International Energy Agency see no impact on oil production in the near term.  The Energy Watch Group believe that reserves are only about two thirds of the current value which would have a significant impact on life as we know it.

I am not sure that production has peaked but the evidence does seem to point to peak oil happening sooner rather than later so it we are to avoid world wide catastrophe we need to start cutting consumption now.  I am of the opinion that, to quote from the 1980's TV series Knight Rider, "One man can make a difference".  Reduce your energy footprint and you might just start a trend that get everyone reducing their energy footprint.

While our governments can wield large amounts of money to push things like renewable energy, electric and hybrid cars,  and energy efficient appliances, we as individuals can effect change if we move on a mass scale.  I just read somewhere that the Toyota Prius is once again in short supply as high gasoline costs push people toward cars that offer higher mpg.  Other cars that have booming sales are the Honda Fit, the Smart fortwo and the Ford Focus.  

I still haven't seen people do the main thing that will help cut down on gas consumption though; slow down.  This week I was driving in my Prius on the 405 at a steady 65 mph and was still one of the slowest cars on the road.  The norm seemed to be 75mph with a few cars weaving in and out of traffic at 80 or more.  In my Prius, increasing speed from 65 to 75 costs me almost 6 mpg so who knows how much more that Ford Explorer driver was using as he raced passed me at 85.

One thing of interest that I read is that for the first time a speed limit of about 75mph has been set on the stretch of autobahn controlled by the city of Brehman.  The city controls a scant 37 miles of autobahn but the speed limit is causing contention among Germans as they have long been used to driving as fast as they wished on these roads.  I expect to see more speed limits on these roads if we start to see gas shortage in the future.  Without drastic reductions in gas usage here in the US I can envisage a time when we return to the 55mph speed limits driven by the OPEC embargo of the 1970s.

Our direction is clear, we need to cut down on our use of fossil fuels and we need to start doing it today.  There are many ways that we can do this starting from the simple expedient of making sure your tires are properly inflated to replacing incandescent light bulbs with compact florescent to starting a carpool to driving and electric car.   To quote the Nike commercial "Just do it".

Sunday May 18, 2008 - Project Better Place - This week San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom announced that San Francisco would be the first US city to participate in Project Better Place.

Project Better Place is the brain child of Shai Agassi, former President, Products and Technology Group for software giant SAP AG.  The idea behind the project better place is nothing new, utilize electric cars by a combination of available charging stations and battery swap facilities.

Both of these have been tried before.  Back in 1894 Morris and Salem designed an electric car that was put into service as a taxi cab in Philadelphia and other cities.  The cab company had a battery swap facility that could swap out a discharged battery pack for a fully charged one in a reported 75 seconds.  

During the MOA period of the California Zero Emission Vehicle mandate about 400 electric vehicle charging stations were installed around the state and many of these are still in service today.  They see little use but that is more a function of the lack of EVs than anything else.  Still, even with several charging stations within a block or two of their home the manufacturers would not lease a car to someone who couldn't install a charger in their home.  

Shai Agassi has already raised over $200,000, 0000 for Project Better Place and has signed on both Israel and Denmark for his pilot project.  Nissan, and Renault, also seem to be on-board.  Carl Ghosn, CEO of the Renault Nissan partnership, has announced that they plan to mass market an electric car.  Renault have already exhibited a mock-up of an electric vehicle with the Project Better Place swappable battery so things are moving right along.

The idea is simple, you buy an electric car without batteries.  The batteries are leased to you for a separate monthly payment.  Now, most of the time the car will have more than enough range for your needs and you will charge at home overnight just like most EV drivers do now.  There will also be parking spaces around town which will automatically charge the car when you park there.  This will allow apartment dwellers, who don't have access to charge an EV right now, the ability to charge their cars.

Now, if you need to take a long trip you will be able to drive close to the full range of your car and then pull into a battery swap facility.  The batteries in your car will be swapped out with a fully recharged pack and you will be on your way in a few minutes.  With a range of say 150 miles on the car you would probably need two battery pack swaps on a drive from LA to Las Vegas but that wouldn't delay you that long.

Now, this is a very sound plan on paper but I do have  few issues with it.  First, to make the plan work effectively we would really need to standardize on battery packs.  This is going to be an almost impossible task since a two seat car like the Smart EV would require a whole lot different pack from say a Dodge Epic electric minivan.  So now you have to deal with setting the correct type of pack into the car, or having different swap stations depending on the model of car you drive.  I, being the worrying kind, would also be concerned that the new pack might not be as good as the old one and would perhaps not get me to my next scheduled stop.  This can be mitigated to some extent by having plenty of swap stations along the way.

The other issue with the swap stations is the infrastructure costs.  Imagine millions of EVs on the road and lots of people heading along I15 to Las Vegas for the memorial day weekend.  The swap station would need to have hundreds of battery packs on hand just to keep up with demand, even with the ability to fast charge the packs.

It is the ability to fast charge the packs that make the battery swap obsolete.  Phoenix Motor Cars have already demonstrated that their Altair Nano pack can be charged up in as little as 10 minutes.  Now, a ten minute break every 150 miles or so isn't a bad thing and fast charging infrastructure could be provided at a much lower cost than the swap stations.   Swap stations look good on paper but I think they will be an expensive option when compared to fast charging.

In the end, Project Better Place needs millions of EVs on the roads for it to really succeed.  The big issue right now is to get these EVs into the showrooms.  We are presented with a chicken and egg situation, to roll out the infrastructure requires vehicles, to get vehicles on the road we need infrastructure.  It is the same problem we see with hydrogen fuel cells but in this case things are much simpler.

First of all we already have lots of infrastructure in place in the form of the electric grid.  Today. many people can go out and buy and EV, charge it at home, and use it as a daily driver.  Just take a look at the RAV4 EV owners.  Many of these cars are now showing 60,000 or more miles and several are now over 100,000 miles.  That has been achieved without battery swap or fast charge facilities and with only a limited number of public charging stations.  

While it will be a good thing to have a start on infrastructure, it is not essential.  Once cars start to show up in dealerships then money can be invested to place charging stations at strategic locations.  One thing missing from the existing infrastructure is hotels.  Very few public chargers were included at hotel sites but in my opinion this is an essential part of making the EV usable as a replacement for gasoline powered vehicles.  If you take that drive to Las Vegas, or from London to the south coast, it would be nice to plug your car in at the hotel when you get there.

What I would like to see is a standard developed for the charging interface.  We need an interface that can determine the type of supply be it 13 amp, 15 amp, 20 amp, 40amp. 400amp or whatever and adjust charging to utilize whatever it is plugged into.  Once we have that, we can start building fast chargers and getting the cost down on them to the point where we can start rolling them out on major highways. 

Here's a simple case study.  Pacific Life, a large insurance company based in Southern California, has just opened a new office tower in Aliso Viejo.   Included at the site are 6 EV parking spaces and each space is equipped with a 110V 15 amph socket.  Now their Main office is located in Newport Beach and doesn't have any EV parking spaces but across the street is fashion island where there are two parking spaces one equipped with a small paddle inductive (SPI) charger and the other with an AVCON conductive charger.  Also in the area are a set of three SPI chargers at the Irvine Company offices.  All 5 chargers are available to the public.  Now,  David Shelton, who works at the Newport Beach facility is able to charge his RAV4 EV at the Fashion Island location but if he drives down to the Aliso building he can't charge there because the RAV4 EV does not accept 110V input to its charger.  

We need to have EVs that can charge pretty much anywhere they can find a socket.  AC Propulsion's charging system, also used by Tesla, is like that so it can be done.

I have always been an advocate of charging for electricity use so we also need to develop a smart card system that would allow the utilities to charge for the electricity used at the charging station, or finally allow businesses or individuals to resell electricity to people charging EVs.

In the end, Project Better Place has a good chance of success as long as we can get EVs available in the sort of numbers needed at a price that will attract customers.  It is a plan whose time has perhaps come, and I applaud Shai Agassi for having the nerve and commitment to the environment to make this happen.

Sunday May 11, 2008 - Electric Momentum - With Gas prices in the US creeping over the $4.00 mark and people in the oil industry now begging to talk about the oil peak occurring sooner rather than later it seems like there is a growing explosion of EV research going on.

This weak I saw news articles about BMW and Audi both working on electric cars and Smart, who is already running a trial of an electric version in the UK has just announced it is going to expand the trial by using Lithium batteries starting next year.  The BMW offering will be a city car and will probably be sold under the name Isetta.  So far there is no real information about the car but those who remember the bubble cars of the 1950s can get an idea of what the Isetta may look like.  As for Audi, Rupert Stadler, CEO of Audi, in a recent interview in Frankfurt said that Audi would have an electric car in the next five to ten years. 

It seems like just about every major automobile manufacturer is going electric and they are lining up in two camps, Plug-in Hybrids and Battery Electric Vehicles.  There is one notable exception to this; Honda.  Honda is still pushing fuel cell vehicles expecting to begin a limited lease program to the public of its Clarity FCV later this year.  In his recent news letter Bill Moore from EV World speculated that Honda probably has an R&D program for battery electric vehicles in progress but is not saying anything about it.  I tend to agree with Bill Moore, a company like Honda can't afford to put all its eggs in one basket and the cost of a BEV R&D program would be cheap insurance against backing the wrong alternative fuel.

Renault has also been in the news again with speculation that they have done a deal with Israel and Project Better World to become the exclusive supplier of thousands of electric cars.  Renault is denying that but they do seem to be the major contender for supplying most of the vehicles for both the Israel and Demark projects.

Venturi has also been in the News recently and the news wasn't good.  They have once again slipped the production of their Fetish electric sports car as they continue to tweak the car to reduce weight and improve performance.  I have no doubt that Venturi will be able to sell all the cars it wants to produce but they really need to stop messing and get the car to their customers.

This week Tesla opened its first service center and showroom in on Santa Monica Blvd. in West LA.  Continuing a long tradition they invited many Los Angeles residents who are prominent in the EV movement but ignored evfinder.com even though their dealership is less than 5 miles from where I sit writing this blog.  I drove by there yesterday morning and the showroom appeared empty except for a single roadster sitting in the window.  Since they are already backlogged by 15 months this didn't surprise me and the fact that they now have a place where owners can get their car attended to is a good thing.  

Tesla also seem to be experiencing a few delays of their own as they iron out the bugs in their production line.  However, they do appear to have started delivery of to customers.  In Daryl Siry's blog from the 5th of May he indicated that car number 003 has been delivered to an unnamed customer while car number 002 is undergoing some fixes after the QA process before it is shipped to the US for delivered to Martin Eberhard.  I learned this morning that car number 002 is now in San Carlos so Mrting Eberhard should be driving it soon.

Building cars is a very capital intensive business and once the large OEMs begin to roll out real electric vehicles the small time manufacturers are likely to be pushed aside.  I have said this many times, they need to get into production and build a niche before the big boys come along and eat their lunch.  Tesla is making the right moves and I am looking forward to seeing other companies following in their footsteps.

Sunday May 4, 2008 - California Green House Gas Rules under Attack - California has always been a leader when it comes to the automobile.  They are the biggest market for Automobiles in the US and this has long caused air quality problems.  To offset this California has also been a leader in clean air legislation.  This is now under attack by the Bush Administration.

California has always had the worst air quality of any any state in the US and to combat this severe action was needed.  Because of this situation California has been able to establish its own laws for air quality.  Other states can choose between the Federal rules or the California Rules.  Currently about 17 states, including some of the most populous like New York, follow the California Regulations.

In the end, most automobile  manufacturers have been forced to follow California guidelines since it is more cost effective to build all your vehicles one way rather than to have separate California and non-California versions.

The Bush Administration have been working hard to prevent California from pushing the automobile industry to improve fuel economy and reduce emissions.  This all started when they joined the automobile manufacturers in a lawsuit that ended up gutting the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.  

California pushed on and passed legislation to curb Green House Gas emissions.  The Bush Administration tried to block this and in the end the case came before the courts.  It was ruled that Carbon Dioxide was an air pollutant and as such California had the right to make laws to regulate its emission.

California then requested a waiver from the EPA, but the EPA, heavily influenced by the Bush Administration, refused to allow California this waiver.  California has now taken this before the courts so in a pre-emptive strike the Bush Administration, this time under the guise of the Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration are tying to sneak legislation into law that would explicitly prevent California from regulating green house gases.

The intent is shown when they write "when state law stands as an obstacle to the accomplishment and execution of the full purposes and objectives of Congress" Further down we see the proposed rules which in part says  "As a state regulation related to fuel economy standards, any state regulation regulating tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles is expressly preempted under 49 U.S.C. 32919".

This is a blatant attempt to block execution of California's landmark green house gas regulations.  This is going to be bad news for everyone since the ultimate goal is most likely to prevent California for setting their own air quality regulations leaving them with the watered down pro big business regulations that are coming out of the EPA.  Legislation that has already proved to be totally inadequate to deal with California's smog problems.

If you want clean air and are concerned with global warming then now is the time to write to your Congress person and let them know in no uncertain terms that the people will not tolerate this attempt to prevent meaningful green house gas limits.

Sunday April 27, 2008 - Th!nk America - Last Monday Norwegian company Th!nk issued a press release saying that they have opened an office in the USA and plan to start selling cars here starting in 2009.  This is good news for those who think the future is in battery electric vehicles.

Those of you who read my blog from December 2, 2007 will recall that Th!nk was owned by Ford from 1999 until 2003 and during that time they spent something like one hundred and fifty million dollars to develop the latest version of the Th!nk City.  This car was thoroughly crash tested and made ready for sale before Ford pulled out of the EV market after CARB gutted the ZEV mandate.

Since they Th!nk have continued to enhance the vehicle, mostly by upgrading the batteries from NiCAD to Zebra and are now offering a couple of varieties of Lithium batteries.  The Th!nk City is an excellent vehicle for commutes around town but is a little slow for more than very short trips on the freeway.

I am happy to hear that Th!nk are coming to the US and sincerely hope that they can come through and start deliveries to establish a market niche ahead of the large OEMs like Subaru, Nissan and the plug-in hybrids that are being developed by GM, Toyota and Ford.

I do have some doubts on the viability of this project though.  The first is that I have not so far heard if the DOT will accept the crash testing done by Ford or if they will require a whole new set of crash tests before the Th!nk can be sold here.  I suspect this to be the case and if so I have doubts that they can get the crash testing done in time to begin selling in 2009.  

It is, of course, too early to give real pricing for a 2010 model year vehicle but the prices I have seen banded around seem to be on the low side.  Numbers posted in the press speculate a cost in the range of $15,000 to $17,000 with an additional $100 to $200 per month to lease the batteries.  The price I have seen quoted for the UK version of this car is almost twice that so I would expect a somewhat higher price, at least until they can get into real volume production.  Still, the pricing would be much lower than say a Tesla or a Tango although the City doesn't have the speed and acceleration of the other vehicles. 

You may also recall that Th!nk announced back in November of last year that they had started up the production line in Aurskog, Norway and have been durability testing a group of vehicles since they rolled off the production line.  I am beginning to get concerned that they haven't started to ship to customers yet since this might indicate that they have problems in durability that need to be addressed.  Still, while March was the timeframe we expected to see customer shipments, their press release did say that first shipments would occur by mid 2008.  I will be a lot happier about Th!nk's chances when I see cars rolling into Customer's driveways.  

Not that I am faulting Th!nk here, it is better to do thorough durability testing and release a sound product that it is to rush the product to market then get killed with warranty claims or just get bad press over poor reliability.  I think that the Th!nk City has a lot of potential.  If the car can deliver the 100 mile plus range as claimed it will make an excellent vehicle for the US urban market.  The Zebra batteries give a somewhat lower range but would still be an excellent choice for station car type programs and those will shorter commutes.

Battery costs continue to be an issue with battery electric vehicles.  If you assume $200 per month lease costs for the batteries and an average mileage of 12,000 miles per year then you get a cost of 20¢ per mile for the cost of batteries which would be considerably more than the 13¢ per mile that would be typical of a 30mpg ICE at $4.00 per gallon.  At $100 per month costs come down to 10¢ per gallon and if you add electricity costs this brings down the price in line with an ICE vehicle.  If you take into account the high cost of maintenance for the ICE and the convenience of home charging, then at $100 per month the leased batteries begin to look like a good deal. 

I really hope that Th!nk can make a success of its business in Europe and bring their cars to the US starting in 2009.  I think there is a latent demand for electric vehicles both here and around the world, that is beginning to grow rapidly as the idea that oil resources are beginning to dwindle and burning oil to get from a to b is having unpleasant consequences on our atmosphere.  Th!nk could become a global leader in this emerging market but it will need to get into the US market ahead of the competition if it is going to do well over the long haul - I wish them luck.  

On 4/28/2008 Eddie Columbus Wrote

I scoured the Th!nk web site for a press release, but the only thing I found a week or so ago about deliveries was "spring". Several news reports said the Norwegian deliveries would begin in April, but there can be some wacky info in these news reports. The Green Wombat BLOG said the first deliveries would begin in March, but he also said they would deliver the first 500 cars (too high - see below). I am with you though...I would rather see the first cars for retail delivery to be defect/kink free. There will be a wave of excitement when retail delivery begins...I only hope that some of our friends capture some video footage to share with us! 

Source for production numbers: http://www.thinkev.com/think/content/view/full/182 

The Th!nk web site states their capacity is 5,000 cars per year per shift and they plan to ONLY make 1,200 cars this year. My initial reaction to reading that was disappointment, but it is quite the departure from other OEMs who promise the world and fail to deliver a continent. I am also not sure if this refers to calendar year or model year...my gut tells me this is probably model year that that additional production will come online the 4th quarter.

On 4/28/2008 Noel replied 

I got the information about delivery dates from my previous blog on Th!nk. I wrote that at the time of the press release so I know it was accurate at that time. I actually think they are talking about production numbers for the Calendar year not the model year but they weren't specific so I guess whichever fits reality. I too hope they will get some video of early deliveries I think it would be great advertising for them.

Sunday April 20, 2008 - Sainsbury Goes Electric - British grocery chain Sainsbury has found a new old way to fight global warming.  They have started conversion of their delivery fleet to electric.  I say new old way because electric vehicles have been used for almost a century to deliver milk in Britain.

J Sainsbury PLC was founded in 1869 when John James and Mary Ann Sainsbury opened a small dairy shop in Drury Lane, London.  The company has grown over the years from that first tiny shop to become one of the largest food retailers in the UK.  The company has also become a leader in environmental issues by introducing things like compostable packing materials and recycling programs for carrier bags.

In 1985 they started field testing their "Little Green Van" electric delivery trucks.  These trucks, built by Smith Electric Vehicles, have proved so effective that they have ordered more and will have 20% of their fleet electric by the end of September.  They plan to convert the entire fleet by 2010.  

The electric vans, which are currently charged off the grid, are responsible for about 0.20Kg of CO₂ per kilometer, considerably less than the 0.36Kg of CO₂ produced by the diesel trucks they replaced.  Each van placed in service will save about 5 metric tons of CO₂ per year.  In addition, each of these vans will replace about 780.000 drives to the store, although this will not have much impact as the trips would be displaced anyway even if the delivery was by diesel truck.

The Vans are equipped with a GPS navigation system that allows the driver to plot the most efficient route for his deliveries saving time and energy.  To save even more green house gas emissions Sainsbury plans to eventually charge the vehicles from renewable sources such as wind or solar bringing the amount of emissions down to near zero.

Delivery operations are a good application for electric vehicles since many of these vehicles don't drive more than about 30 miles per day although some routes can take the vehicle up to about 100 miles per day which is possible with newer battery technology.  Smith for example offer a variety of electric delivery vans with ranges up to 150 miles and payloads in excess of 15000 lbs.  These vehicles are ideally suited to local deliveries in large urban areas.

I would like to see more electric vehicles being used for such delivery missions.  For example the post office uses thousands of delivery vans to get the mail to your mailbox.  Their average route in large cities is something like 22 miles and payloads are well within the capabilities of an electric van.  The US postal service did attempt a pilot project a few years ago but a poor design. mating the standard Grumman body to a Ford Ranger EV chassis powered by lead acid batteries didn't give the vehicle enough range, so the project was dropped like a hot potato.  The French government on the other hand did a successful trial with a van based on the Citroen Berlingo using a lithium battery pack, and are now looking to find a supplier who can supply several thousand EVs.

Using Electric vehicles doesn't always make sense but in many cases it does.  We need to cut our carbon footprint and the use of electric delivery vehicles is one way to help.  I hope that companies with delivery operations see the success that Sainsbury is having and start to emulate them.  The good news is that Smith Electric Vehicles is beginning to expand into the US with a range of electric vehicles that should be well suited to many delivery fleets.  

Sunday April 13, 2008 - EV Pollution - It seem like every time we get some good news on the EV front we get someone, threatened by the idea of being shifted from there comfortable version of reality by electric cars, who trots out the stale old "the electricity comes from coal so EVs are dirtier" argument.

The big trouble with this type of argument is that it has just enough of an element of truth to sound totally credible.  It is true that unless you charge your EV from renewable sources 100% of the time then you do create a certain amount of pollution.  It is not true however that EVs are charged from coal fired plants so they pollute more.

The truth is that our electric grid is fired by a whole bunch of different and ever changing technologies.  In some areas coal makes up a big portion of the electrical grid mix but in other places coal makes up hardly any of the mix.  In the area I live, serviced by Southern California Edison, the mix is down to around 11% coal and about 17% renewable energy while the vast majority of the electricity, close to 50%, is generated from natural gas.

Now, the "dirty coal" crowd make it appear like you plug in your EV and Charlie over at the power plant starts shoveling coal to get it charged.  Well, the situation is a little different.  The power company is going to try and match supply with demand within the constraints of the generation system.  One of the issues they face is that it is sometimes difficult to shut down power generation on demand.  It is pretty easy to shut of hydro.  You simply close the openings to the turbine shafts and open the bypass shafts, the turbines stop running and generation stops.  To start up the turbines again you just reverse the process.  and within ten minutes you can have 400MW on line and at your disposal.  At the other end of the spectrum is nuclear.  Once you shut down the nuclear reactor it can take weeks to get it restarted again.

Coal isn't as bad as Nuclear but it does take about four hours to restart a coal fired turbine once the boiler has been shut down.  Because of this time lag power generation companies don't shut down coal fired plants very often.  That's one of the reasons why the power companies like EVs and PHEVs.  Charging them overnight provides a nice load on the grid that allows them to keep the turbines turning.

Another thing to remember is that most of the "EVs use coal" crowd do a well to wheels analysis for the EV but only a tailpipe analysis for the ICE.  They forget about all the "coal produced" electricity used to refine a gallon of gas.  They also forget the other pollutants put out at the refinery.  Take the refinery in Carson, CA for example.  When I drive passed this refinery just before dawn I see them burning off waste gasses from several tall chimneys.  When the wind is in the wrong direction this often results in a heavy layer of soot on cars in the Manhattan Beach area a few miles away.

Now, another thing that the old "Coal" argument assumes is that things will stay the same.  This is not really likely to be true.  Since modern coal plants are getting much cleaner than the old plants, as old plants move out of service and newer plants take their place the grid becomes cleaner.  

New techniques are also being developed that can be used to sequester green house gas emissions.  It is a big job to go out and fit sequestration equipment on the thousands of coal and gas fired power plants around the country but imagine trying to do that on the over one hundred million tail-pipes spewing out green house gases.  It will also be a lot harder, and therefore more costly, to try and capture GHGs from moving tailpipes than from stationary smokestacks.  

Over the last few days the BEV v FCV debate has sprung up again on the RAV4 EV board.  I am of the opinion that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still a long way off and that if we spent the money on development of BEVs instead of trying to push for hydrogen we would be better off in the long term.  I still don't like it when I hear people argue that FCVs pollute more because currently hydrogen is produced by steam reformatting of natural gas.  That might be true at the moment but doesn't mean it has to be true in the future.  There are lots of ways to produce hydrogen including electrolysis of water and using biological entities such as bacteria to break down water into oxygen and hydrogen.  In the long term it is these technologies that will win out if we ever move to a hydrogen economy.

On the other side of the coin I also get fed up of the hydrogen crowed trying to paint hydrogen as being produced from clean renewable energy and BEVs being charged from dirty coal.  The truth is that both of these get their energy from the same grid and the same power mix.  Improve the grid and we can clean up whichever way we find is optimum in the future.

So here is the big plan, clean up the grid, spend our transportation dollars on getting high speed electrified rail and low speed commuter systems such as subways and electric trolley busses up and running to get people out of their cars, invest big time in battery electric technology to get rid of tail pipes.  I have no problem in continuing research on hydrogen technology but I think that we need to acknowledge that this is a long term solution at best and fund accordingly. 

Sunday April 5, 2008 - No-Plug Boycott - It's been a while now since Dontcrush.com organized the protests that saved the Ford Ranger and Th!nk City cars from the crusher but failed in the attempt to save the EV1.  Well, some people are now beginning to say that a boycott would be more effective than protests outside dealer lots.

Boycotts have been most effective in the recent past.  Lets consider the Civil Rights movement.  While millions of people marching in Washington to listen to the stirring speeches of Dr. Martin Luther King highlighted the need for reform, in the end it was people of color boycotting businesses that pushed things over the edge and led to a more just environment for everyone.

In South Africa, it was the total boycott by the rest of the world that finally led to the overthrow of Apartheid.  In the end the isolation from the world economy was what brought majority rule to the southern tip of Africa.

So, if we want to see cars that plug in the idea is that we let the major automobile manufacturers know that the next car we buy is going to have a plug or we will stick with what we have.  

This is not going to be easy, especially for those that like to change their cars every two or three years, but in the long run the large automobile manufacturers are going to produce the type of car that people buy.  If nobody is buying large SUVs then they will stop producing them.

So what's the problem?

Well, the large manufacturers have to jump through legal hoops to get a car on the road.  They have to meet DOT requirements including  extensive crash testing.  They have to meet CARB and EPA emissions requirements, and they have to produce a car that is going to be reliable and that requires testing testing testing.  It also needs to be affordable and that means working with the supply chain to develop and produce a whole set of parts and on top of that you have to try and predict the volume of sales you are going to experience.  So it takes a long time to get a new car on the road, typically five years.  Now, if nobody buys one of your cars for five years until you can produce one with a plug then you are going to be out of business.

Unless a car manufacturer already has a plug-in vehicle in the works it is unlikely that they will be able to produce one in the near term.  The good news is that we already know that Ford, Toyota and GM are working on plug-in hybrids while Subaru, Nissan and Chrysler all have battery electric vehicles in some stage of development from concept car to fleet testing.  Ford has plug-in versions of the Escape hybrid in testing with Southern California and I have actually seen one on the roads here in LA.  Toyota have a couple of plug-in hybrid Prius being tested at UC Irvine and UC Berkley, while GM has been working hard on the Volt and really look like they intend to sell it, although given GM's track record I will believe it when I see them in dealerships for sale not lease only.

In the interim there are a number of options that can be used to keep the mileage down on the old gas hog.  Neighborhood electric vehicles are available from a number of manufacturers, including Chrysler with the GEM, and these can be used for short errands and commutes of 10 miles or less on surface streets.  There are also a few small independent companies that are trying to get into manufacturing, and companies like EVT and Vectrix offer reliable two wheel electric transportation. 

I certainly think that if enough people go to their dealers and ask them for a car that plugs in and when they say they don't have one then respond that you will wait to buy a car until they have a plug-in then that is going to influence the vehicle manufacturers decisions.  I don't know if Plug-in America will champion a boycott of none plug-in transportation but I do know that some senior executives at Plug-in America are looking closely at this issue.  If Plug-in America doesn't do it then someone will; and soon.

I think that it is more important that we follow through and, assuming that the plug-in vehicle is affordable, we actually go out and buy one when it becomes available.  I for one an expecting my next car purchase to be a plug-in hybrid and I know I can continue to drive my Prius until one becomes available.  The automobile manufacturers have a habit of making it difficult to buy plug-in vehicles then claiming their is no demand.  That's difficult to do if the cars are flying off the lot as fast as they arrive like the Prius did in 2004 where inventory times at dealers were counted in hours rather than days or weeks.

Sunday March 30, 2008 - ZEV Mandate the results are in - Last Thursday the California Air Resource Board (CARB) met to review the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate and the published staff report appeared to show that the mandate would be totally gutted.  Well, the results are in and, while things could be better, they are not as bad as they were in the staff proposal.

The day started with public testimony, first from the automobile manufacturers and then from the general public.  Unlike the last CARB review where then chairman Alan Lloyd gave the automobile manufacturers as much time as they wanted then cut the public testimony and even stopped some members of the public having their say, Mary Nichols gave each person three minutes to present their views so everyone who wanted got their turn,

The Board were not overly impressed with Staff recommendations feeling that they had cut the program too deeply.  The result was better than expected but not as good as those in the BEV community would have liked. 

Staff had proposed that the number of true ZEVs that must be produced in the 2012-2014 time period would be 2500 vehicles.  The Board increased this number to 7500 vehicles; not as good as the original 25,000 vehicles but better than the staff recommendations.  

Now, CARB has this really complicated set of credits that were intended to jump start the ZEV mandate by giving more points to vehicles placed in service early and since the number of credits that each manufacturer has accumulated has always been kept secret the impact of past credits on the numbers above is impossible for the layman to gauge.  One of the staff recommendations that the Board accepted was that the number of credits banked by the OEMs will be made public record by 2010 which will then let us figure out just how many vehicles have been placed in service and how many credits the Automobile Manufactures have banked.

They also introduced a new classification of vehicle, the long range Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) which is defined as a fuel cell vehicle that has a range of over 300 miles on a tank of hydrogen.

The CARB summary lists the following number of vehicles that would need to be produced by the large volume manufactures.   The minimum number of vehicle then can get away with is 5357 long range FCVs.  If they want to fulfill their requirement with regular fuel cell vehicles then they will need to place 7500 vehicles in service, and if they want to fulfill their obligation using BEVs then they would need to place 12,500 vehicles in service.  It should be noted that we are talking freeway capable electric vehicles here not NEVs or City EVs.  

These numbers can, of course, be offset by accumulated credits so the actual number of vehicles placed into service is unknown but will certainly be less than the numbers quoted above.  It should also be noted that these numbers are spread over the five large volume manufacturers, Ford, GM, Chrysler, Nissan and Toyota.  A large manufacture is one that sells more than 60,000 vehicles per year in California. 

There are several manufactures poised to move from medium to large volume over the next few years and the Board once again rejected the staff proposal to give them twelve years to transition, leaving the transition period at its current six years before they have to meet the ZEV requirements.

The new requirement also requires the large volume manufacturers to produce 58,000 plug-in hybrids in the 2012-2014 time period.  Since at least three of the manufacturers, GM, Ford and Toyota all have plug-in hybrid projects in the works, this will spur them toward getting these cars on the road.  

Finally the Board directed Staff to totally overhaul the ZEV program for 2015 and beyond.

Overall I think that these revisions still put too much emphasis on fuel cell vehicles and not enough on battery electric vehicles but the results are certainly much better than the staff recommendations.  Unfortunately we won't know just how this will translate to actual vehicles in the hands of consumers but I think it is enough to keep vehicle manufactures programs active.

The biggest losers here may be the small start-up companies like Phoenix Motor Cars, Commuter Cars, ZAP and Tesla.  With the prospect of both BEVs and plug-in hybrids being sold by the big OEMs it becomes much less likely that people will be willing to spend lots of money on a BEV from a small company.  Tesla of course stands the best chance here since their roadster is very different from anything that the big five are likely to produce.

Phoenix must be very disappointed with the outcome of this meeting.  Their business plan called for selling credits to the big five to keep the cost of their SUT down to affordable levels.  Since the OEMs probably won't need to buy a lot of credits for a while this may mean that Phoenix may need to re-price their vehicles upwards.  I could also see them as being a target for one of the big companies like Ford or Chrysler who could get a pretty decent BEV for much less than the cost to develop one and get it to market.

Sunday March 23, 2008 - New York 2008 - The New York Auto Show is in full swing and once again we are seeing the automakers trying to project a greener image.  

For starters GM's Vice Chairman of Global Product Development, Bob Lutz, was there showing pictures of the first Continental Lithium Ion Battery pack featuring A123 technology that will be tested in the Chevy Volt.  The pictures showed a metal case in still in the crate with no indication of the internals of the battery pack.

Mr. Lutz also announced that GM would be launching 16 hybrids over the next four years and this will include some with their two mode hybrid system.  He also hinted that there would be a lot more flex fuel cars coming from GM.  He is quoted as saying that GM intended to be the "world wide fuel solutions leader and undisputed environmental and technological leader in the industry."

Mitsubishi were also showing their i-MiEV electric car.  This car has a 330 volt lithium battery pack driving a 47KW permanent magnet motor giving a top speed governed to 80mph and a range of about 80 miles.  Unlike the Chevy Volt show car, which only has a golf cart motor and can barely move, Mitsubishi had a car on hand to allow journalists to take a test drive.  The car is currently undergoing fleet tests in Japan and should go on sale to the public there in 2009.  Mitsubishi used the New York Auto show to announce that it would also be doing fleet tests with select US power companies starting in the fall of this year.  No companies were mentioned by name but Southern California Edison is strongly tipped to be among those getting cars.

Subaru was also showing its R1e electric car at the show.  The R1e is powered by a lithium battery pack that is supposed to have a 10 year 100,000 mile life and can be recharged to 80% of capacity in about 15 minutes using a special charger or fully charged in 8 hours from a standard 110V receptacle.  The car, which has a top speed of 65 mph and a range of about 50 miles, has been tested in Japan for the last two years.  Subaru announced a formal partnership with the New York Power Authority to test the R1e in the USA. 

Nissan also had an EV concept at the New York Auto Show, the Denki Cube Concept, an electric version of Nissan Cube micro-car currently being sold in Japan.  Apparently Denki is the Japanese word for electricity.  The Denki Cube is, as its name implies, a boxy looking car that is very similar in appearance to the Scion Xb.  The car is powered by a lithium battery pack.  Nissan have been using lithium packs since the late 1990s when they leased a small number of Nissan Altras and Nissan Hyperminis in California.  There was no indication of any plans to put the Denki Cube into production although Nissan has said that they see the future in battery powered EVs.

The New York Auto Show was also the venue used to formally announce the X-Prize $10 million competition to the public.  Progressive Insurance was also announced as the X-Prize sponsor.  $7.5 million will go to the first company to produce a vehicle that can achieve a fuel economy rating equivalent to 100mph.  Now, several people have built cars that can do this but the kicker here is that the car also has to carry four people, do a top speed of 100mph and have a range of 200 miles on a tank of gas.  There is also a secondary prize of $2.5 million to the first company to build a car that will seat at least two people, have a top speed of 80 mph, have a range of at least 100 miles before refueling, and get the equivalent of 100 mpg.  The kicker here is that the car must also pass federal safety requirements and must sell at least 10,000 vehicles.

To date there has been approximately 18 entries into the competition including electric car companies Commutacars and Aptera.  It will be interesting to see who finally comes up with a winning entry.

2008 is rapidly shaping up to be the year of the EV.  While many companies are talking about 2010 as the year that they will launch their electric vehicles it is this year that the vehicles are starting to come to light.  I expect to see more announcements from the big auto companies as they realize that they can't deliver on fuel cell vehicles in a timely manner and finally get the notion that battery electric vehicles are the wave of the future.  Look for announcements on plug-in hybrids at the LA and Detroit auto shows.

Sunday March 16, 2008 - Sustainable Development - Over the last couple of weeks I have been spending some time down in south Orange County and I have seen the kind of development that is built around the use of an automobile.  This kind of development is a big reason that America is addicted to oil.

The area of Aliso Viejo, close by the 73 toll road, has lots of development going on.  The development is the old fashioned sort of development where one vast tract is being developed into housing, another has office buildings springing up like weeds, and a third area is a mini-mall grown to gigantic proportions.  Vast amounts of acreage is dedicated to parking lots and the whole thing is fed by miles of wide multi-carriage surface streets that cars zip along at 45-50 mph.

Now, that might sound pretty good, and it does mean that people can live, work, and shop all within the area, but the big problem is that the different zones aren't close enough together to make it possible to walk anywhere.  If you want to go to the store then you have to get into the car, want to go to work and again you need to get into your car.  Since the different areas are only a few miles apart, the car is constantly being run at low temperature which is when the internal combustion engine is just at its most polluting.  Of course electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles are perfect for this type of driving, but not driving at all would be even better.

If they want to take their kids to school then you have to drive.  If they opt to carpool with the other moms then they need a bigger vehicle which in South Orange County means a full sized SUV.  Imagine how much better it would be to walk the kids to school instead of Chauffeuring  them to school in a barely warmed up 14mpg SUV.  The exercise would do everyone a world of good.

Even a trip to the bank requires that you get in your car and drive a few miles.  Banks are few and far between in that area but accommodations are being made.  I found a Wells Fargo bank branch located in a Vons grocery story and my carpool partner Jerry found he could make a deposit at an ATM inside a Burger King without incurring ATM fees.

I did observe one piece of development that was trying to address this.  There is a row of town houses that is being built in a complex that is walking distance from the office complex, the public library, and a smaller shopping complex that hosts a grocery store.  This row of town houses is being built as a mixed use building.  The ground floor level is set up to be shops while the upper two levels is living space.  The idea is that people can run a business from the ground floor while living above the shop.

The only issue I had with this is that the ground floor business areas where too small for any serious business.  Half the space appears to be taken up by garage leaving only a small space for business.  Once again accommodating the automobile is getting in the way.  Three of the shops appear to be taken by hairdressers.  The problem here is that they each only has room for one chair.  Still, the idea of mixed use development is beginning to spread.

For those that have to work further away there is no real public transportation system that is close enough to work well so everyone must get into their cars and drive.  The main access into the area is via the 73 toll road which means an extra eight dollars a day.  Toll roads of course are just another form of disguised taxation since the money to build the roads is provided by a private party then paid back by the people who drive the road instead of the money coming from a bond issue then being paid back from the tax that people pay on their cars.

The ideal situation is that people live in a community where everything they need is close by.  Where people can live, work and play within their community.  It has to be understood that not everyone will be able to work close to home so the community will have to be near to public transport, preferably an electrified rail system.  The other alternative is for people to be able to telecommute.  I work with people who live in places like Phoenix and Oklahoma City who are just as able to complete their work as they would be if they went into the office every day.  I understand that telecommuting isn't always possible but companies need to start making it happen instead of blocking it at every turn.

Before the dawn of the automobile age most people never traveled more than thirty miles from their place of birth.  I'm not saying that we should go back to that but going back to a state where everything you need is close at hand and you only have to travel when you want to not because you have to. 

I have to admit that I have one of the longest commutes of anyone that works for my company and only mitigate that by carpooling and the occasional telecommute.  The company I work for openly discourages telecommuting and that is something that I have to work on.  I live in an area where I can walk to the local grocery store, drug store, library and several excellent restaurants.  It would be nice if I could leave my car at home most of the time like I did when I lived in London. 

Sunday March 9, 2008 - Geneva 2008 - The Geneva Auto Show just got into high gear and we have seen a host of encouraging announcements that show the auto industry is moving in a more sustainable direction.

The biggest announcement of the week came from electric car maker Th!nk Nordic.  They announced that they are going to begin delivery of the Th!nk City to customers in Norway starting this spring.  They also showed a concept car called the Th!nk Ox.  This car is basically a five passenger crossover but styled to be very aerodynamic.

The car will come with a 60KW electric motor and a choice of NiNaCl or Li batteries.  With a top speed of 130 km/hr and a target range of 200 Km this is just the kind of car that people have been looking for.  It appears that Th!nk intends to produce this car.

Other good news for Th!nk is that GE have invested four million dollars in the company.  It is good to see that a company with deep pockets like GE is getting behind this tiny electric car manufacturer.  GE also announced that it is going to invest twenty million dollars in lithium battery maker A123 who will be supplying one of the battery pack options being offered by Th!nk.

The biggest bombshell that came out of the Geneva Auto show wasn't one of the cars however but statements made by both GM and Toyota about fuel cell vehicles.

First it was GM vice president of product development Bob Lutz who said "recent advances in lithium batteries indicate that future electric cars might be able to travel 300 miles on a charge".  He went on to say, "If we get lithium-ion to 300 miles, then you need to ask yourself, Why do you need fuel cells?". He also stated that fuel cells are still too expensive, saying "We are nowhere near where we need to be on the costs curve".

Somewhat less of a bombshell but significant never-the-less was Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe who noted, not for the first time, that the high cost of fuel cells and lack of infrastructure was a barrier to sales of fuel cell vehicles to the public.  He stated "it will be difficult to see the spread of fuel cells in 10 years time".

Hybrids, on the other hand, were on display in abundance.  Volkswagen for example showed their concept Golf TDI hybrid, which features a 27 hp electric motor and a 1.2 liter 3 cylinder common rail turbo-diesel, giving fuel consumption of 69mpg.  VW say this car is almost production ready.  

Another diesel hybrid on display was the Mercedes BlueTEC Hybrid from Daimler.  This SUV has lithium ion batteries and a 224hp 2.2 liter blue tech diesel engine which Daimler claim has the lowest CO₂ emissions of any SUV on the planet.  There was no indication if Daimler planned to produce this car.

Saab took the concept one step further with its 9X BioHybrid concept car.  The BioHybrid, which looks like yet another crossover SUV, is powered by a 1.4 liter flex fuel engine coupled with GM's next generation hybrid drive based on lithium batteries to give an overall fuel economy of 48mpg when using gasoline and a little less when running on E85.  GM did not have plans to produce this vehicle but said that they plan to sell 100,000 hybrids per year when the second generation hybrid power train come on line.

Fisker has its plug-in hybrid on display in Geneva.  The Fisker concept sports car has a large battery pack, big enough to let the car run 50 miles electric only before needing a recharge.  Once the batteries are depleted an ICE comes on to provide the electricity needed for an additional 450 miles of range.  "We are getting up to 100 orders each week" a company spokes person told the Associated Press.  The car will cost around $80,000 and will go into production in late 2009.

Toyota, which doesn't have diesel technology to rival the European manufacturers is planning to expand sales of its hybrid vehicles in Europe.  They plan to have 18 different hybrid models available by the end of 2009.

It looks like we are reaching a tipping point for electric vehicles.  Car companies are now starting to look at hydrogen as a long term issue and see plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles as the way forward in the near term.  Still, it is companies like Fisker and Th!nk that are actually out there moving towards production.  It's time for the big boys to step up to the plate and get vehicles with significant electric range and recharge capability into the hands of the public.

Sunday March 2, 2008 - Mangling the Mandate - The California Air Resource Board (CARB) is due to meet on March 27 to consider the ZEV mandate.  The Staff report has just been released for public consideration and it is clear that CARB want to further Mangle this legislation.

The ZEV mandate was first adopted in 1990 after GM showed the Impact at the LA Auto Show and stated it's intention to manufacture this car.  Since then CARB has been steadily watering down the Mandate, modifying it in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2003.  Each time the number of ZEVs that the large automobile manufacturers must produce has been reduced.

The latest Staff report is no exception.  Under these revisions the number of ZEVs that must be placed in service in California is exactly 0.  The traveling provision that was introduced in 2003 has been extended to cover not only fuel cell vehicles but also battery electric vehicles.  

The manufacturers do still need to put some ZEVs on the road, just not in California.  The cars can be placed in service in any of the 10 other states that now follow California's emission laws and still count towards the California total.  The total has, in fact, become a total for all states that follow the California rules.

In reality most of the ZEV vehicles will be placed on the roads in California and New York state and it is the smaller states like New Mexico that are not going to see any ZEVs on the road for a long time.

The CARB staff proposal has also reduced the number of vehicles that are to be delivered in the 2009-2011 model year period from 25,000 down to 2,500.  This clearly shows how the automobile manufacturers hoodwinked CARB when CARB did the 2003 modifications.  These manufacturers did a good job of persuading CARB that they could begin commercialization of fuel cell vehicles by 2008 when groups like Plug-in America were telling them it wasn't possible.  It turns out that Plug-in America was correct.  I will further predict that the 25,000 fuel cell vehicles that CARB is expecting to be produced in the 2012-2014 model year period won't be built either.

Then again, CARB isn't expecting the manufacturers to actually build that many vehicles.  On page 29 of the report is table 4.4 which sets out a scenario where the large manufacturers use their banked credits.  In this scenario they would, as a group, only need to produce 250 fuel cell vehicle with a 200 mile range and 10 minute fill times, and 200 fuel cell vehicle with a range less than 200 miles to full the 2009-2001 requirement.  In years 2012-2014 they would need to build just 2,500 of the 200 mile range Fuel cells, 3125 fuel cells with less than 200 mile range,  4,167 Freeway capable EVs, and about 11,250 City EVs.

The big question here is where did the six biggest automobile manufacturers get their banked credits.  There hasn't been a single EV sold by one of these manufacturers since very early in 2003 and they have only put a handful of fuel cell cars on the road since then, including only 3 that are in the hands of individuals rather than fleets.  One good recommendation of the staff report is the provision to make information on the ZEV credits available to the general public. 

Another good provision is the merging of the two tracks that were introduced in the 2003 modification back into a single track.  The Automobile manufacturers would not have to select to take the fuel cell route or the battery electric route, they can now meet their obligations with a mixture of battery electric and fuel cell vehicles.  This makes a lot more sense than having manufacturers elect one route or the other and gives them much more flexibility to exploit evolving technologies.

Another provision is the increase in credits that are awarded to NEVs.  NEVs, although ZEV, can only be used to offset AT-PZEV requirements.  That means that they are treated like a Prius of Honda Civic Hybrid rather than a true ZEV.  Many of the battery electric vehicle advocates pushed of this in 2003 since they want to see freeway capable EVs on the roads.  However, a ZEV is a ZEV and if you can offset miles driven, especially for very short trips where and ICE is at its most polluting, then the air quality issues are being addressed.  

There were also a couple of interesting factoids buried in the report.  It appears that sales of NEVs in California is falling.  I am not sure if this is a comparison using 2001 and 2002 as a yardstick where Chrysler and Ford, and to a lesser extend GM, dumped large numbers on NEVs onto the market in California at prices that were little more than cost.  I have heard that NEV sales are going down in general but this appears to be part of the general economic downturn rather than people moving away from NEVs.  The second factoid concerned the Type VI ZEV which is basically a fuel cell vehicle with a range of greater than 200 miles and fast refill capability.  The manufacturers are going to 10,000 psi tanks and it appears that the current fueling stations are not able to fill these in under 10 minutes so the cars don't qualify as type VI ZEVs even though they have a range of over 200 miles.

 In the end, CARB are still trying to push fuel cells and appears to be doing its best to ignore the strides that have been made in battery technology over the last few years.  We now have the ability to make and sell a decent ZEV at an affordable price.  Perhaps we can't build one that will go 80mph on the freeway for 200 miles with a battery pack that will last for 20 years or 150,000 miles, but we can build a car that will function quite adequately and cost effectively as a second or third car for the family.

If CARB want to really promote ZEVs then let the 25,000 vehicle requirement stand.  Allow the manufacturers to fill this limit with fuel cell vehicles, freeway capable EVs, city EVs, NEVs, or credits bought from smaller manufacturers including makers of battery electric three wheelers like ZAP, Twike and Aptera.

Comments on the Staff report can be made here and I urge anyone that lives in one of the states that supports the California rules to let CARB know that they need to stop weakening the mamdate.  States that have adopted the ZEV mandate are 

Sunday February 24, 2008 - Death and Taxes - In a letter to Jean-Baptiste Leroy written Nov 13, 1789, Benjamin Franklin said, "In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes."

Benjamin Franklin, while being the best known, wasn't the first to express this sentiment.   That honor goes to Daniel Defoe who, in The Political History of the devil written in 1726 wrote "Things more certain as death and taxes, can be more firmly believed."

This week the husband of a friend passed away and it's time to get my tax information ready for my accountant so death and taxes are firmly on my mind.

Nobody likes paying taxes.  I look on them as a necessary evil.

The basic purpose of taxes is a way to fund government. In reality, taxes are used for many other purposes, to build and maintain infrastructure, to educate our children, to fight wars, to take care of those unable to care for themselves, and to promote changes in behavior.

It is the last item that has a large impact on alternative fuel vehicles. 

Taxes have often been used as a carrot and stick.  For example high taxes on gas in Europe have lead to people driving smaller, more fuel efficient cars while in the US, low gas taxes and subsidies to oil companies (from taxes) have kept gas prices low and vehicles large.

I have said over and over on these blogs that we need to have a huge push to move the world towards a more sustainable future.  That means cutting subsidies to oil and gas companies and move that money toward solar, wind, wave an geothermal energy generation; toward better more usable public transportation; and towards zero emission vehicles.

That brings us back to 'death'; thousands of people die each year as a result of health problems brought on by vehicle and other emissions.  This should not be acceptable in a modern society.  We, at the very beginning of the twenty-first century, need to solve this problem for future generations so our great grandchildren, as they move into the twenty-second century, will live in a world with clean air to breath and a sustainable lifestyle to preserve the world for future generations.

If that happens then I will consider my taxes as money well spent.  

Sunday February 17, 2008 - A Vision of the Future - I have been reading a lot of different things about the past, present and future of personal transport over the last few months so I thought it would be fun to speculate a little on a possible future weekend trip.

It's Friday afternoon and time for me to finish work.  The company I work for is based in Aliso Viejo about sixty miles south of LA in Northern Orange County.  The drive home might seem daunting but not for me; I shut down the computer and walk over to the living room where my wife is watching a sitcom on the large screen TV.  Telecommuting is much easier than having to slog through all that traffic every day.

This weekend in Presidents day weekend and we are going to take a trip to Las Vegas.  We already have a room booked for two nights at the Flamingo and just need to get there.  When the next advert comes on I grab the remote keyboard and log on to the Amtrak  web site.  I find that there is a train leaving for Las Vegas at 10am tomorrow and I book two seats. 

On Saturday morning we get up and have a leisurely breakfast then flip on the TV and go to the LA MTA web site to pull up the Red Line information.  I see that there is a train that will get me to Union Station in plenty of time to make my connection.

Picking up our luggage Aggie and I head down to the garage and get into our Smart.  The Smart, which was provided as part of our rideshare membership, is an excellent car for getting around town.  The Zebra batteries give the car a range of 70 miles and a top speed of 60mph which is perfect for a city car.

It's a short hop to the transfer station at Wilshire and La Cienega where I pull the Smart into the large underground parking lot and navigate over to the car share area and plug in to one of the charging towers powered from a large solar array up on the roof of the transfer station.

When we get down onto the platform the display tells us that the east bound red line train will be arriving in two minutes.  When the train arrives it isn't too crowded so we get some seats for the twenty minute trip into Union Station.

Union Station is bustling with people getting out of town for the long weekend.  Aggie and I go to the ticket machine, I swipe my smart card, and the machine delivers two boarding passes for the 10am train.  Next we have to pass through security.  Since we are registered travelers this isn't too much of a problem.  We go to the registered travel lane, swipe our smart cards then look into an eyepiece to get a retina scan.  Once the computer has identified us the barrier opens and we are through onto the platform.

The indicator shows that the train will be arriving in five minutes so we find a seat until the train pulls into the platform and disgorges a horde of travelers coming to see the sites of LA.  We already have our seat reservations so it is just a matter of finding the correct car and getting to our seats.

At 10am sharp the train doors slide shut automatically and it begins to accelerate out of the station.  At about 30mph we feel the maglev lift off the track and we are pushed back into our seats as the train quickly gets up to over 100 mph.  Los Angeles begins to recede into the distance as the train gets up to its top speed of a little over 300 mph.

The first stop on the trip is at Ontario Airport.  We start to slowing down as we come into the Ontario area and as we approach the airport we see the large storage tanks of bio-fuel that has now replaced most oil based aviation fuels.  The train accelerates out of the station once more and we move on to a stop in Victorville and Barstow.  As we leave Barstow we pass by the large new solar generating station that has been built there.  This power station uses a liquid salt process to produce electricity twenty-four hours a day.  We will pass several of these as we cross the Mohave desert.

The train makes another stop in Baker then starts the long run from baker to Prim on the Nevada side of the California-Nevada border.  Finally the train speeds its way into the rail station in down town Las Vegas.  It only took us a little over two and a half hours to travel from our home to Las Vegas which is much better than the usual five hour drive.

They have only just started building the subway in Las Vegas so we opt to use a car.  There is a rideshare pick-up point at the station so I go over there and swipe my card at the kiosk.  There computer screen at the kiosk shows me a list of available cars there but they don't have a Smart so in the end  I opt for a Miles NEV.  The Miles NEV is a nice four seat fully enclosed car with a top speed of 35mph and its lead acid batteries give it a range of around 30 miles.  It is quite adequate for getting us to our hotel.  

Las Vegas blvd. is busy as it always is but traffic still moves along at a steady 35mph and the Miles easily keeps up in the dash between traffic lights.  We pull into the Flamingo self parking and go up to the 3rd floor where there is a bunch of charging stations for electric cars at the rideshare lot.  We plug in the car and I swipe my smart card again.  The card is automatically charged for the twenty minutes and twelve miles I had driven the car.

During our stay in Las Vegas we travel around using the monorail that runs the length of the strip, or occasionally use the trams that run between casinos, like the one that runs from Bellagio to the Monte Carlo. 

On Monday we take in an early lunch at the Flamingo Buffet  before picking up another car at the rideshare stand in the Flamingo.  This time, since the Miles is no longer available, we select a ZAP Xebra to get us back to the station.  We catch the 2pm Maglev, getting us back home a little before 5.  

I log on to check on my emails and find that the couch we are having re-upholstered is ready.  I give a quick call to our nephew who says he can help us with the couch if we can get it home before 7pm.  The Smart isn't going to carry a couch.  I log on to the rideshare service and see that the lot at the Beverly Connection has a Dymac Truck available.  I reserve the truck then drive on down to pick it up. 

Arriving at the Beverly Connection I find the Dymac Truck and swipe my smart card to unlock it.  I take the truck down to Western and the upholstery company employees load the the couch up for me.  I give Reuben a call and he says he will meet me at the apartment in 20 minutes.  By the time I get home the truck state of charge is getting quite low but Reuben is already there so we lug the couch up to my place.  There is still enough charge on the truck to get it back to the Beverly Connection again but as I turn into the parking lot the low battery light starts to flicker.  I pull it into a free space, place it on charge, then swipe my smart car one last time and get charged for use of the truck.

The above may seem like it is fanciful but just about all the elements that I listed here, with the exception of bio fuels for airplanes, are already available.  Everything here from maglev trains to solar power stations that use hot salt to store heat so they can continue producing electricity after sunset, to rideshare systems that can use smart cards to control reservations and billing, are all here now.  Even the cars I listed are available now.  It's just a matter of building out all the infrastructure and you can have a world that needs a tiny fraction of the oil that is currently consumed to run our transportation systems.  

There are even a couple of states that have updated their low speed vehicle laws to allow them to travel 35mph not 25mph.  These laws aren't in place yet for California or Nevada but there is already an active movement here in California to get the laws changed and once California updates their laws other states will follow.

We know that oil will one day be in short supply.  We need to move towards the sort of future I have described otherwise we will be caught with our shorts down once again.

Sunday February 10.2008 - Internal Combustion - This week I just finished reading Internal Combustion by Edwin Black.  This is a fascinating book, based on thousands of hours of research by Mr. Black and his team, about how the Internal combustion engine became the method of choice to power our personal transportation.